Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 202.929832 245.598460 298.130520 368.660373 462.602411 5.860001e+02 7.648623e+02
2025-06-29 154.380269 203.929832 272.742616 378.997461 546.263062 8.137643e+02 1.308441e+03
2025-07-06 123.862545 173.338079 247.889255 375.109157 602.558070 1.030238e+03 2.017817e+03
2025-07-13 111.396340 164.112318 249.665884 410.206379 736.294013 1.466230e+03 3.665146e+03
2025-07-20 101.473867 155.928065 249.959224 441.594516 879.073085 2.041733e+03 6.747771e+03
2025-07-27 92.701653 147.492893 247.165225 465.398221 1019.486745 2.761027e+03 1.256522e+04
2025-08-03 84.530332 138.385662 240.693283 478.880581 1143.880646 3.597891e+03 2.351195e+04
2025-08-10 76.910189 128.882965 231.217040 482.197685 1244.010134 4.512724e+03 4.421976e+04
2025-08-17 69.453588 118.497881 217.794947 471.598475 1296.584483 5.331742e+03 7.954844e+04
2025-08-24 63.013018 109.169165 204.883844 458.524070 1335.268966 6.189877e+03 1.489414e+05
2025-08-31 57.470800 100.901034 192.869001 444.514999 1364.402633 7.099547e+03 2.987111e+05
2025-09-07 56.288462 101.281685 200.349170 488.435612 1663.999835 1.109310e+04 2.794760e+06
2025-09-14 52.596379 96.146577 194.500634 492.325193 1803.642943 1.453311e+04 6.912412e+07
2025-09-21 50.002101 93.041666 193.076063 510.472657 2040.896319 2.110806e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 46.627710 87.814599 185.442726 505.434455 2152.492587 2.712585e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 45.933254 88.458770 193.029947 557.684139 2694.479483 5.314626e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 44.931496 88.257416 198.360187 604.801261 3305.403624 1.104016e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 43.551592 86.984340 200.492962 640.807326 3923.190313 2.378707e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 41.801517 84.607007 199.026456 661.307295 4464.855197 5.134932e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 39.793279 81.373267 194.479769 666.362898 4875.587044 1.082889e+06 NaN
2025-11-09 37.453569 77.083604 186.082008 650.227252 5015.506113 1.889933e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 35.237300 72.908577 177.470298 630.390082 5086.460131 3.282341e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 33.185338 68.975413 169.096376 609.217734 5114.168571 5.815943e+06 NaN